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Market Background The peace did not hold. The interim peace agreement between the United States and Iran broke down, supply disruption returned to the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and Brent crude rose 24.3 per cent to $91.12 per barrel, its strongest month since March. Having been up 16.1 per cent year-to-date at the end of June, it is now up around 45 per cent. Two months, two violent reversals, in opposite directions. I wrote last month that if the ceasefire did not ho

Market Background June completed the reversal that began in May. With the Middle East ceasefire holding, the energy premium built up in the spring continued to drain away. Brent crude fell a further 19.9 per cent to $73 per barrel. Having been up nearly 50 per cent year-to-date at the end of May, it is now up 16.1 per cent. Whether the de-escalation proves durable remains unknowable, but for now the market has made up its mind. The selling was not confined to oil. Gold fell

What could possibly go wrong?

The S&P 500 has had its best month since April 2020. Closes at a new high Background: Global financial markets proved unexpectedly resilient during April, with equities rebounding despite the Middle East conflict and surging energy prices. The energy complex remained strong in April. Brent Crude ended the month at over $120 per barrel. To understand the market, examine data since the conflict's start. Since late February, the price of Brent Crude has increased by more than 50

Background : If February marked the divergence of global equities from the US, March saw geopolitical events take centre stage. The US/Israeli military action against Iran, beginning February 28, escalated throughout March. This development affected global financial markets and significantly altered the macroeconomic outlook for the rest of the year. The immediate and most visible impact was felt in the energy markets. Brent Crude, while volatile, rose over the course of th

Background If January was the month that "real" assets reasserted their dominance, February was the month that global equity markets finally decoupled from the United States. For the better part of a decade, the narrative has been one of US exceptionalism, with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ pulling the rest of the world in their wake. February provided a stark reversal of that trend. While US markets struggled to find their footing, the rest of the world surged ahead. The S&P

Gold price ($ per oz.)

Background: Although US markets struggled to make headway in December, it did not derail what turned out to be a good year for equity markets, gold and industrial metals. A significant theme of 2025 was that those markets that started the year at the lowest price, as measured by PE ratios, gave the best returns over the year - the more expensive markets lagged. For all the talk of the Magnificent Seven, only two (Alphabet +65 per cent and Nvidia + 38.9 per cent) beat the 17.9

Background: A volatile month for markets, with many calling the top of the AI bubble. Whether it has popped or is just letting out a little air is a moot point. Equity markets weren’t helped by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Following a quarter-point interest rate cut early in the month, he poured cold water on the chances of a further cut in December. Towards the end of the month, the mood changed with the market now expecting another cut on 10 December. This helped

Background: The markets wobbled a little in October before recovering. Concerns about a mounting trade war between the US and China dominated the news. China threatened to restrict the export of rare earth metals. The US, despite its best efforts, is a long way off from reducing its dependence on rare earths from China. In any case, Trump and Xi reached a compromise. The broad details included China agreeing to buy US soybeans and reducing its restrictions on the export of

Fornalutx, Majorca Background: After a wonderful summer, the sun continued to shine on markets and my two portfolios. Virtually...

Borrowdale

Rushed this out today - I'm on the sleeper to Fort William tonight to hike the Great Glen Way to Inverness. Background: Thus far,...

Background: Another eventful month to cap off an exhilarating first half of 2025. The US market has staged a sensational recovery from...

Background: Another topsy-turvy month in the Trump world. Tariffs reduced, tariffs delayed, new tariffs introduced—a new term gained...

Trump informs President Pingu of the Heard and McDonald Islands about the imposition of reciprocal tariffs of 10% Background: Donald...

Struggling with jetlag! Sunrise over Wandsworth Common.

Ferry from Queenscliffe to Sorrento I posted my January review but did not receive a notification. I guess nor did anyone else. Let's see...

Background: To describe January as eventful would be to do it a disservice. Trump's inauguration speech clearly stated that he intends...

Background: Investors spent December analysing the potential impact of a second Trump term on the markets. Would he reintroduce trade...